The Midterms' Price Tag: Spending Projected at a Record $11.9 Billion, Driven by Super PACs and Dark Money
OpenSecrets projects the 2026 midterms will cost $11.9 billion — about 30 percent more than 2022 in real terms — with outside spending expected to reach $3.9 billion and dark-money contributions already at a record $1.47 billion.
When all the reporting is in, the 2026 midterm elections will be another record, with total spending reaching $11.9 billion, according to OpenSecrets' analysis of Federal Election Commission disclosure data, read in full this run. The 2022 midterms cost $8.9 billion, or $10.2 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars, and the 2026 total is expected to surpass even the amount spent on congressional elections in 2024. BBC Verify, in its own look at the figures, reported more than $9.5 billion had already been spent by mid-October, based on FEC filings.
Outside spending, driven by super PACs, is fueling the increase, OpenSecrets reported: it totaled $2 billion in 2022 and is expected to reach $3.9 billion in 2026, an 85 percent increase. Conservative groups were outspending liberal groups $2.03 billion to $1.67 billion in OpenSecrets' tally as of Oct. 30 — a $360 million difference — with the Senate Leadership Fund at $489 million and MAGA Inc. at $353 million the top two spending groups; on the liberal side, Senate Majority PAC had spent $248 million and House Majority PAC $192 million.
Candidates themselves still raise billions. OpenSecrets expects House and Senate candidates to spend about $3.7 billion from their campaign accounts, with Democratic candidates projected to spend more than $2.2 billion against about $1.4 billion for Republican candidates. In Texas, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico has raised nearly $145 million, dwarfing Republican Ken Paxton's $22 million, OpenSecrets reported, with Paxton relying on substantial outside-group support.
The single largest donor is Elon Musk, whose current disclosure records show $445 million given to federal committees this year, including $215 million to America PAC, which he started and funded, and $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund as of Oct. 14, OpenSecrets reported. Dark-money contributions tracked to outside spending groups have already reached nearly $1.47 billion — a lower bound, OpenSecrets said, that already exceeds the $1.35 billion record set in 2024, a cycle that included a presidential race.
